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Max Erik: Tegmark (born Max Shapiro 5 May 1967) is a Swedish-American physicist and cosmologist. He is a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the scientific director of the Foundational Questions Institute. He is also a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, a supporter of the effective altruism movement, and has received donations from Elon Musk to investigate existential risk from advanced artificial intelligence.

Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord
Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

 

June 8, 2018

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:Abstract

The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high ex ante probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the apparentlyl ifeless universe we in fact observe. The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake  quation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is small, the sheer multitude of possible sites should nonetheless yield a large number of potentially observable civilizations. We show that this conflict arises from the use of Drake-like equations, which  mplicitly assume certainty regarding highly uncertain parameters. We examine these parameters, incorporating models of chem- ical and genetic  ransitions on paths to the origin of life, and show that extant scientific knowledge corresponds to uncertainties that span multi- ple orders of  agnitude. This makes a stark difference. When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a sub- stantial ex ante  robability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any  igns of it. This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would  nevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe.

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