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On 1 January 2019 the New Horizons probe will begin transmitting data from Ultima Thule, 4bn miles from Earth in the Kuiper belt. What will it find?

An illustration of the New Horizons spacecraft encountering 2014 MU69 – nicknamed Ultima Thule – a Kuiper belt object that orbits 1bn miles beyond Pluto. Photograph: emily.furfaro/Nasa/JHUAPL/SwRI

our billion miles from Earth, a swarm of little worlds circles the dark edge of our solar system. The sun is so remote from this place that it appears no brighter than a star. This is the Kuiper belt, a doughnut-shaped ring of icy objects that is one of the most mysterious – and one of the most scientifically intriguing – regions of space around our sun.

The belt is made up of rubble left over from the formation of the sun’s planets billions of years ago, fragments that are a fossil record of the solar system’s birth. For decades, researchers have dreamed of getting a close-up look at one but have been thwarted by the utter remoteness of the Kuiper belt.

But this sad state of scientific ignorance is about to come to an end. On 1 January, the US probe New Horizons – which has been hurtling away from the sun for the past 13 years – will sweep past Kuiper belt object 2014 MU69 and, for the next 24 hours, use its cameras, detectors and scanners to scrutinise this little world in detail. By the end of the probe’s encounter, an object that is currently no more than a dot in astronomers’ telescopes should be transformed into a world rich in astronomical and geological detail.

Alan Stern
“We are going to find out what this object is made of,” says Alan Stern, the principal investigator of the New Horizons mission. “How was it was constructed? Does it have an atmosphere? Does it have rings? Who knows what we might find.”In the process, MU69 will become the most distant object that has ever been explored remotely by human beings. It should be a remarkable encounter – a point recognised by mission control staff who recently decided to give the little world a title that is more memorable than its current drab astronomical catalogue number. They have renamed it Ultima Thule – after the region that ancient geographers believed was the remotest in the inhabited world. (Both Greenland and Iceland are candidates for the original location of Ultima Thule.)

It will take less than 24 hours for New Horizons to whiz past Ultima Thule and survey it with its instruments on New Year’s Day. Then it will start to beam its findings back to Earth to provide scientists with that precious data about the early history of our solar system. Then, having completed its historic task, New Horizons will plunge further into deep space in the rough direction of the constellation Sagittarius.

“The crucial point is that everything is now going perfectly with New Horizons,” says Stern. “We have just made one correction to its current course and will have the opportunity to make three more before 1 January. However, I don’t know if these will be necessary – we are already very close to the correct trajectory that we need to follow.”

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